Obesity Market Outlook: Supply, Pricing, and Next-Generation Assets
Commercial dynamics shaping the obesity therapeutic market through 2030.
Published Aug 10, 2024 · Updated Aug 15, 2024 · Last reviewed Aug 15, 2024
Direct answer
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are capturing the majority of obesity revenue, but oral alternatives and combination regimens will reshape market share.
Key takeaways
- Injectable GLP-1/GIP agents command premium pricing and strong formulary access.
- Supply constraints have limited near-term volume growth.
- Oral small molecules and monthly-dosing biologics could unlock new patient segments.
The obesity market is experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by semaglutide and tirzepatide. Wegovy and Zepbound have achieved rapid uptake despite reimbursement friction and manufacturing constraints. Cagrisema and retatrutide are positioned to extend efficacy, while maritide's monthly dosing could improve adherence. Oral options from Pfizer, Lilly, and Structure Therapeutics target patients who prefer pills and lower-cost production, though discontinuations like lotiglipron underscore tolerability risks. Cardiovascular risk reduction is becoming a key differentiator following SELECT and pending SURMOUNT-MMOE results.
About this report
- Author
- Dr. Michael Patel, Healthcare Equity Research Director
- Scientific reviewer
- Dr. Sarah Chen, Senior Biopharma Analyst
Related entities
Asset
Semaglutide
Asset
Retatrutide
Asset
Cagrisema
Asset
Maritide
Asset
Orforglipron
Company
Eli Lilly
Company
Novo Nordisk
Company
Pfizer
Company
Amgen
Company
Structure Therapeutics
Trial
NCT04184622
Trial
NCT05929066
Trial
NCT05567796
Target
GLP-1R
Target
GIPR
Target
Glucagon receptor
Indication
Obesity
Indication
Cardiovascular risk reduction
Deal
Roche Holding AG / Carmot Therapeutics Inc.
Deal
Eli Lilly and Company / Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
Catalyst
Topline data from SURMOUNT-MMOE cardiovascular outcomes trial expected 2025.
Catalyst
Phase 3 TRIUMPH readouts expected 2026-2027.
Catalyst
REDEFINE 1 topline readout anticipated in 2025.