analysis

Obesity Market Outlook: Supply, Pricing, and Next-Generation Assets

Commercial dynamics shaping the obesity therapeutic market through 2030.

Published Aug 10, 2024 · Updated Aug 15, 2024 · Last reviewed Aug 15, 2024

Direct answer

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are capturing the majority of obesity revenue, but oral alternatives and combination regimens will reshape market share.

Key takeaways

  • Injectable GLP-1/GIP agents command premium pricing and strong formulary access.
  • Supply constraints have limited near-term volume growth.
  • Oral small molecules and monthly-dosing biologics could unlock new patient segments.

The obesity market is experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by semaglutide and tirzepatide. Wegovy and Zepbound have achieved rapid uptake despite reimbursement friction and manufacturing constraints. Cagrisema and retatrutide are positioned to extend efficacy, while maritide's monthly dosing could improve adherence. Oral options from Pfizer, Lilly, and Structure Therapeutics target patients who prefer pills and lower-cost production, though discontinuations like lotiglipron underscore tolerability risks. Cardiovascular risk reduction is becoming a key differentiator following SELECT and pending SURMOUNT-MMOE results.

About this report

Author
Dr. Michael Patel, Healthcare Equity Research Director
Scientific reviewer
Dr. Sarah Chen, Senior Biopharma Analyst

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